West Hawaii Real Estate | April 13, 2018 15
over a decade,” Yun said. “The
expanding economy and healthy
job market are generating sizeable
homebuyer demand, but the
miniscule number of listings on the
market and its adverse effect on affordability
are squeezing buyers and
suppressing overall activity.”
Added Yun, “Expect ongoing
volatility in the Northeast region
at least through March. Although
pending sales there bounced back
in February following January’s cold
weather-related decline, the multiple
winter storms over these
last few weeks likely put a
chill on contract signings
once again this month.”
With the start of the
spring buying season in full
swing, Yun believes that one
of the top wild cards for the
housing market in coming
months will be how both
buyers and potential sellers
adjust to the steady climb
in mortgage rates since late
last year. Prospective buyers
continue to feel the strain
of swift price growth – up
5.9 percent so far in 2018 –
and the higher borrowing
costs will only add to the
pressures placed on their
budget. Meanwhile, more
would-be sellers deciding to
balk at listing their home for
sale out of uneasiness of losing
their low mortgage rate –
especially if they refinanced
in recent years – would
not be good news for any
alleviation of the ongoing
supply shortages in much of
the country.
“Homeowners are already staying
in their homes at an all-time
high before selling, and any situation
where they remain put even
longer only exacerbates the nation’s
inventory crunch,” said Yun.
“Even if new home construction
starts picking up at a faster pace
this year, as expected, existing sales
will fail to break out if these record
low supply levels do not recover
enough to meet demand.”
For the year, Yun now forecasts
for existing-home sales to
be around 5.51 million – flat from
2017. The national median existinghome
price is expected to increase
around 4.2 percent. In 2017, existing
sales increased 1.1 percent and
prices rose 5.8 percent.
The PHSI in the Northeast
surged 10.3 percent to 96.0
in February, but is still 5.1
percent below a year ago.
In the Midwest the index
inched forward 0.7 percent
to 98.9 in February, but is
9.5 percent lower than February
2017.
Pending home sales in
the South rose 3.0 percent
to an index of 125.7
in February, but are 1.5
percent lower than last
February. The index in the
West climbed 0.4 percent in
February to 96.9, but is 2.2
percent below a year ago.
The National Association
of Realtors® is America’s largest
trade association, representing 1.3
million members involved in all
aspects of the residential and commercial
real estate industries.
“Contract signings rebounded in most areas in February, but the gains were
not large enough to keep up with last February’s level, which was the second
highest in over a decade,” Yun said. “The expanding economy and healthy job
market are generating sizeable homebuyer demand, but the miniscule number
of listings on the market and its adverse effect on affordability are squeezing
buyers and suppressing overall activity.” – Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
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License No. RB-21953
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Main +1 808 524 2666
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