6 West Hawaii Real Estate | March 1, 2017 MLS Statistics Kona real estate cycles Updated data through 2016 provides insight into current cycle These charts clearly demonstrate how huge and abnormal the 2006 bubble was. The Kona real estate market is now into its fourth major real estate cycle, according to Michael B. Griggs, Clark Realty Corporation broker. Lessons from the past: 1) Cycles have been getting longer. 2) The average annual percentage of price change has been +7 percent from 1972 to 2016. 3) Percentage of price change appears to be declining. Since 1989, it is been +5 percent. 4) Periods of price decline have lasted four or five years in each of the three cycles. 5) The year before the peak price year has always shown the greatest price increase. Prices went up 45 percent in 1979, 37 percent in 1990 and 28 percent in 2004. The price increase of +27 percent in 2005 was an anomaly caused by the out of control mortgage lending. “The 27 percent increase in 2005 likely put the trouble in the bubble,” said Griggs. “It never would have happened if it weren’t for out of control lending. This added an additional year to the last cycle.” 6) The four/five year market corrections in Cycles 1 and 2 were -11 percent. Following the bubble the five-year correction was -45 percent. “This extreme correction countered the extreme bubble,” explained Griggs. “The severe price collapse was due to the huge number of mortgage defaults. This might be referred to as the anti-bubble. We now are in the 10th year of the current cycle. I believe recovery from the effects of the bubble will likely add around three years to the current cycle. Lessons of the past suggest there are several more upside years to go before the next peak.” The sales data is from 21 North Kona subdivisions: Highlands, Wonder View, Coast View, Palisades, Kuakini Heights, Aloha Kona, Hillcrest, Seaview, Sunset, Kilohana, Kailua View I, Komohana Kai, Kuakini Makai, Cho Cho Estates, Malulani Gardens, Kealoha, Kona Vistas I, Keauhou View Estates, Alii Heights I, Pualani Estates, Lokahi Makai. They total 3,997 lots with 7,370 new or repeat home sales. The price range in 2016 is $302,000 in Hillcrest up to $800,000 in Kona Vistas I. HAwaii’s upscale REAL ESTATE Experts Robert Wilkinson, R(B) 808.987.6774 ROBERTWILKINSON@ELITEPACIFIC.COM ROBERT.ALLBIGISLANDPROPERTY.COM 27 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE 75-5905 WALUA RD., STE. 9 KAILUA-KONA, HI 96740 10-Acre Estate Holualoa Single level on 1.4 aces with Ocean views. All Koa interior, Guest quarters, 4 BR 3 Bath. Vintage Hawaiian home built in 1953. Great condition. 1,970 Sq.Ft. MLS# 601510 $729,000 keauhou estates SOLD Custom 4 Br 3. 5 Bath Ocean views Pool Spa, Hardwood floors, Spectacular architecture PV solar, smart house, 3 car garage. Built in 2012 Excellent condition 5-zone AC Must see! 3517 Sq. Ft. $ 1,688,000 Spectacular property with 3 separate Houses and unlimited Coastline views. Custom built with exceptional quality. 9500+ Sq.Ft. MLS# 294819 $4,295,000 iolANI Custom 4 Br 2.5 Bath Spectacular Ocean & Coastline views. Single level with pool and spa, Wood fl oors, PV Solar Perfect Tropical landscaping All wood flooring. African Mahogany accents. Excellent conditions inside and out! 2814 Sq. Ft. MLS# 298906 $1,529,000 NEW LISTING kona nalu #105 Direct Ocean Front Luxury condo. 2 BR 2 Full Baths. Central air. Designer furnishings. End Unit! Absolute Ocean front. Beautiful! 1208 Sq. Ft .MLS# 601950 $748,888 Private ocean view gated estate with Pool. Beaut i ful usable pasture land. Guest quarters. Close to everything, yet very private. No CC&R’s. MLS #600254 Surf & Racquet 3-104 Absolute Ocean Front End unit. Ground level, remodeled top to bottom never a rental excellent move in condition! Must see! 2BR 2 Full Bath. MLS# 603892 $679,000 Kona By The Sea #312 Top floor, direct ocean front, 2-BR 2-full bath. Beautifully updated and fully furnished. Elevator, covered parking, must see! 1296 Sq Ft. MLS# 602456 $635,950 Kona By The Sea #308 Fantastic Ocean Front upper floor beautifully updated with amazing views 2BR 2 Bath 1296 Sq.Ft. Central AC, Elevator, Covered parking MLS #296216 $619,000 KEAUHOU ESTATES Value pr iced 3 BR 2Bath S i n g l e l e v e l O c e a n v iew home. Located in prestigious Keauhou Estates Subdivision. Built in 2006 2312 Sq.Ft. MLS# 600769 $839,000 Hokulia Spectacular custom 4 BR 5 Bath Over 9000 sq feet under roof. Pool and Spa 1 + Acre Superb fi nishes with Ocean views. Single Level with Guest suites. MLS# 604085 $5,999,000 Holualoa Development 4.6 acres with 4 separate lots. 1 existing home and huge ocean views. 3 BR 3 Bath gated and private with 800 Coffee trees. Excellent opportunity. MLS# 602682 $1,399,000 4-Acre Estate $1,749,950 Kona Average Residential Price Trend Comparing Real Estate Cycle #1 (Peak 1980) To Recent Cycle #3 (Peak 2006)
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